Why Traders Fail & How to Win (Part 1)

In the fast-moving world of futures trading, the E-mini S&P (ES) and E-mini NASDAQ (NQ) often move in tandem. During a recent traders session, I had both charts open—ES on one monitor, NQ on another—watching for any early divergences. But they moved nearly identically, which is usually the case. Unless I spot something unique, I typically trade the NQ.

That said, for traders managing smaller accounts or looking to limit risk, the Micro E-mini (MES) can be a powerful alternative. It offers a more accessible way to participate in the market while managing drawdowns effectively.

The First 15 Minutes: Avoid the Noise

One of the most important lessons I teach: avoid trading during the first 10–15 minutes after the open. It’s tempting—but early volatility can lead to slippage, emotional trades, and quick losses.

A helpful tool here is the Average True Range (ATR):

  • If ATR is over 1 point before the open, you’re likely looking at a tradable day.
  • In current conditions, we’re often well above that.

Adjusting for Volatility with ATR

At the open, ATR often spikes dramatically—6, 7, or even 10 points. That’s significant risk. If a 10-point loss feels too large, you can adapt:

Solution:
Switch to smaller timeframes like 20-second or 30-second charts. This reduces ATR values and tightens your stops. For example, shifting to a 20-second chart might show an ATR of just 2.25 points—much easier to manage.

Spotting Spike-and-Fade Days

A student recently reported getting stopped out more often, even with ATR under 4. That’s often a clue you’re dealing with a “spike-and-fade” day—lots of quick reversals and no follow-through.

If you take two losing trades in a row, take a break. Wait for:

  • 2–3 winning trades in the same direction
  • Cleaner setups
  • Less erratic movement

These market conditions are often driven by news events. Be aware of:

  • Scheduled economic releases (e.g., 8:30 AM, 10:00 AM ET)
  • Fed announcements (usually 2:00–2:30 PM)
  • Unscheduled political or economic headlines

Use a news calendar. Avoid getting caught off-guard.

Trade Smarter, Not Harder

One rule I share often: Don’t take the same trade twice. If it hits your target, let it go. Instead of chasing, focus on getting better entries:

  • If price pulls back 2–3 ticks before moving again, that’s your window.
  • Better entries = smaller stops = higher reward-to-risk.

Some traders average into a position using two micros:

  • Enter once on the signal.
  • Add a second contract if price dips.
  • Your average price improves.
  • If it rebounds, you profit sooner or cut the loss smaller.

Important: Never move your stop. If it’s hit, exit the trade. Discipline is key.

Final Thoughts

Whether you’re trading the ES, NQ, or Micros, it all comes down to timing, volatility management, and discipline. Respect the open. Watch ATR. Be selective with trades. Avoid overtrading and never chase price.

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