Big Candles May Indicate a Trend is Over

When day trading, how do you know if you’re looking at the beginning or end of a trend? You need to follow trend identification rules that tend to work more often than not. Of course, just because a method has worked well historically does not mean it will continue working well in the future. Please understand there are no guarantees of future performance.

In this video, John Paul from DayTradeToWin says to be cautious around large candles. They may indicate a trend is over, as the trend may be “exhausted.” Some traders make the mistake of thinking large candles are a sign that the market is about to move further in that direction. That’s not always the case, and from John Paul’s experience, it’s more likely the market will soon stall out or reverse, as demonstrated around 3:43 in the video.

Sideways or choppy markets are almost guaranteed problems for traders unless you’re scalping and have a really good technique that gets you in and out fast with accurate prediction. As mentioned, the market can go sideways after a trend. If that’s the case, you probably want to wait it out until you see some constant direction, up or down, again.

If your connection/data provider supports it, you can always take a look at the buying and selling action, also known as Level II data. In NinjaTrader, this information is displayed in the SuperDOM. The buying and selling numbers move rapidly. Typically, we focus more on price action (patterns) than DOM action.

It’s important to enter at the beginning of a move up or down, not at the end, once the trend is over. By the way, just because there’s a period of stagnant activity does not mean that you should see a trend. As shown here, it’s entirely possible a big candle will emerge out of nowhere. Then, it’s possible to again see stagnation or a period of large candles.

In the 8-Week Mentorship Program, you’ll learn how to identify trends with specific rules. Also, the signals that you’re provided are designed to get you in at the start of a move.

E-mini Sets New Record: Trade Scalper and Atlas Line Winners

When there are historic highs in the market, you better hope that you’re using a trading system that accurately calls them out ahead of time! That’s what the Trade Scalper and Atlas Line successfully did multiple times throughout this historic trading day. We saw the E-mini S&P 500 climb well above the 4,000 level. If you were guessing or waiting for a short opportunity and took it, we hope you found success. If you held a position for any length of time, ouch.

Using two of DayTradeToWin’s price action systems together can give you a sense of improved clarity and ease. The Atlas Line can help qualify opportunities identified by the Trade Scalper as well as give a projected direction of where price may go throughout the day. If both systems line up, John Paul believes that’s double confirmation and all the better for trading.

How many times can a trading system be correct in a day? Many times. That’s what scalping is – many traders per day, in and out. You don’t have to take every trade. By all means, take only the best according to the ATR and any other systems you’re using. People get very excited about all the signals and potential of the Trade Scalper. It’s understandable. Once a signal appears, there’s an opportunity to place a trade right away. If you have an ATM Strategy set up that matches current market conditions, you can jump in easily.

John Paul of DayTradeToWin is expecting 2021 market conditions to climb even further. If he’s right, that means there are plenty more days like this in the future. The year isn’t even halfway over yet. By the way, if you need NinjaTrader 8, DayTradeToWin will set you up. They have a full video and written guide that may be some of the best unofficial documentation out there on the platform. The video focuses on getting up to speed quickly and skips out on features that you may not use.

Should You Take an Online Day Trading Course or Class?

“Is this a good trade? Should I enter here? Should I exit here? Am I risking too much or too little?”

These are questions you shouldn’t be asking yourself after you’ve been trading for some time. It’s normal to have these questions when you’re starting out, trying to figure out if you’re using your trading software correctly and applying a technique properly.

But if you are just guessing your way through trading or “hunch trading” as some may call it, well, that can be a problem long-term. So, what’s the solution? Learn from someone who has been a successful trader for years. Hopefully, that person is willing and able to relay all techniques and understanding. Not everyone is a good teacher. Some very rich traders are poor teachers. And of course, some great teachers are poor traders! This is why there may be just a handful of people with the right knowledge and educational ability to teach you how to day trade.

John Paul from DayTradeToWin is such a teacher. He has been teaching people how to day trade for many years. In fact, he didn’t even consider becoming a teacher. He was selling one or two trading methods online, then one of his clients asked him basically, “Hey, do you have anything else you could teach me?” And unbeknownst to John Paul at the time, this became the start of what is now the 8-Week Mentorship Program. Interesting how things in life happen like that, huh?

If you’ve never heard of the Mentorship Program, the above video will run through a number of the methods that are taught. Remember, it’s eight weeks in duration. Class is twice a week. You get all courses and software with Lifetime licenses. Classes are recording so you can watch them later online. It’s the complete package; a treasure trove of trading knowledge being shared with you by a trading expert who can actually teach! Note that John Paul is currently only available for the Individual, on-on-one version of Mentorship. There is another very qualified instructor who teaches the Group class.

How to Forecast Price Action in 2021

Do you want to learn how to predict where price may go in 2021? Look no further. We will teach you a full trading method for free in this video. Historically, John Paul says this technique has been 90% accurate. You can see for yourself in your charting platform of choice. Once you learn the technique, go back multiple years and see if the predictions came true.

This price action technique is called the January Effect, right now, we’re at the end of January, 2021. It won’t be long before we have 100% confirmation on whether the January Effect will apply to 2021. If it does, then we can say 2021 will be an “up year.” In an up year, we can identify retracement opportunities, where price begins to “come back up” to a 50% level as measured from the previous high and previous low.

Once that 50% level is exceeded in a certain way, that’s an entry opportunity. Typically, many of these 50% retracement opportunities occur within the year. In fact, it is possible to take advantage of bearish movement intraday. That’s good because many traders are not equipped to hold positions overnight and for days on end. Intraday means you can be in and out of a position the same day. This is what the DayTradeToWin trading methods mainly look for, as taught in the 8-Week Mentorship, Atlas Line, Trade Scalper, ATO 2 and many other techniques.

By all means, please watch the video to get a better understanding of how it all works. What we’re looking at right now is what the closing price of the E-mini S&P 500 will be at the end of January. We’ll have to be in February to make that determination. January 31 happens to be a Sunday, and the markets are open Sunday evening US/Eastern time. It is doubtful that price will make a huge drop on what is often observed as restful or recreational day. By Feb. 1, 2021, price has to be at 3653.25 or above for 2021 to be an up year. Currently, price is about 200 points above that, so that would be quite the market drop in a week or so.

This is just one method to forecast the market. For traders who do not have many thousands of dollars, you can use the Atlas Line and other tools as intraday forecasters. A forecast is a forecast; there are no guarantees price will do what is predicted. It’s almost like the weather; at least once, I am sure most of us have experienced rain on a day that was forecasted to be clear and vice versa. Hopefully this free trading method brightened up your day!

What Successful Day Traders Do to Prevent Risks

Has the following ever happened to you? You get a signal from your trading system – it’s go to long/buy. Now, you quickly have to place a trade. Fumbling, you click the wrong order type or put too much risk on the trade. If you cancel your orders and resumbit them, that means “back of the line” and you may not get filled. If only there was a way to reduce the headache and streamline the placement of orders!

…Well, in NinjaTrader 8, this is possible. We are big fans of the ATM Strategy feature in Ninja’s trading platform. The above video covers just about everything you’d want to know about how to configure an ATM Strategy. Of course, the video does not go into detail about what profit target and stop loss values you should use. That’s going to be up to you because you may be using a different method than the next person and so on. Therefore, it may behoove you to set up ATM Strategies pertinent to common scenarios you find yourself in.

With day trading systems, it is common to go for a certain amount of ticks or points. If your trading system is based on price action, you may use a dynamic (changing) value for the profit target and stop loss. That’s what they teach over at DayTradeToWin.com. As such, consider what your trading coach or course says. Configure the most common profit targets and stop losses according to the instructions.

If you prefer NinjaTrader 8’s Chart Trader rather than a SuperDOM, you can select preconfigured ATM Strategies from the same style of drop-down. Remember, to configure them, select Custom, which will bring up the configuration area. It’s also important to using a naming scheme that alphabetizes the various ATM Strategies. For example, “P4S8” describes to your mind a profit target of four ticks and a stop loss of eight ticks. A variation could be “P6S10” and son on. Get it?

So, hopefully we resolved some of your nervousness when placing trades. How does Benjamin Franklin’s expression go? “β€œAn ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” Successful trading is as much about risk management as it is finding winners – and sometimes, even more!

See What Happened With This Student’s Real-time Scalping Trade

The support team at DayTradeToWin.com occasionally receives charts and videos from students/clients who use the ATO 2, Trade Scalper, Atlas Line, and other price action trading methods. When such media is shared, it’s easy to point out any mistakes being made by the trader. This is what happened here – a video from a student was provided. For the benefit of all, John Paul, founder of DayTradeToWin, provided commentary and described what he would have done differently.

The highlight of the video occurs around 1:43. That’s where the student places a real-time Long (buy) order based on the advisement of the Trade Scalper signal software. The historical data shows that multiple trades can occur intraday. In most cases, you won’t be holding a trade more than four or five candles. Remember, holding onto a trade longer only guarantees risk. The goal is to minimize risk and focus on signals that have the greatest chance of providing profit.

Of course, no trading method can guarantee profits. If that was the case, the trading method would have been made secret with its proprietors silenced, for they have figured out how to foresee the future, some pattern in nature, or mass scheme to make the data seem random. What a novel that would be!

Back on topic, the idea is to make the futures markets accessible to beginner traders. DayTradeToWin provides throughou details and multiple how-to tutorials/guides on almost every aspect of NinjaTrader. That’s why they’re a great resource for all experience levels. There are many veteran traders who switch over to NinjaTrader and can’t figure out the platform. After an hour-long tutorial video from DayTradeToWin, they’re up and running with a basic understand.

Is It Possible to Have a Career as a Day Trader?

There are so many day trading systems out there claiming to be the best. If you do a bit of research, you may see some of these organizations making big claims or promises have only been around for a short period of time – nowhere near the 10+ years DayTradeToWin.com has. If you take a look at all the new trading videos on YouTube, you’ve probably seen many rags to riches stories. Is it really that simple? Be careful to not subscribe to a personality; the methods have to work. Period. Do these other people have videos going back 10 years demonstrating consistency? Very few, if any do, with the exception of DaytradeToWin.

…Here’s yet another demonstration of success. Keep in mind, trading should only be done with designated risk capital; not one’s rent money, grocery money, child support money, etc. If you’re in that desperate of a situation, we sincerely wish you the best with a more conventional form of employment or other means of fortune/sustenance.

Even if you have stacks of cash serving as improvised furniture because you don’t trust the banks and physically want to see your money every day (a ridiculous and hopefully humorous picture that hopefully drives home the point), you should still practice first. NinjaTrader and other platforms have really honed in on creating a practice environment that replicates the trading experience closely. In fact, simulated trades in Ninja sometimes aren’t filled – just like the real thing!

If you were to purchase the Trade Scalper and Atlas Line, the configuration of each is relatively straightforward. You’ll have signals just like those in the video above: short, long, etc. It’s up to you to place the trade. The systems don’t go as far as trading for you. Why’s that? Because it’s better if you’re in charge rather then entrusting some code to not sabotage your trading account. If you look hard enough, you can probably find some horror stories of traders who had too many orders placed otherwise subjected themselves to too much risk because of a robot’s algorithm. DayTradeToWin.com has always preferred to put that power in your hands, the human trader, who may have some discretion though the methods/rules are objective.

3 Market Entry Methods: Webinar Video

Webinar Video

Did you miss the live trading webinar video? As you know, most traders sit in and watch the signals happen in real-time. So, John Paul goes into the details and answers questions from the audience. Watch the replay below. The webinar, which took place on 22 November 2019, is recent. The presentation begins with a general description of John Paul’s markets.

So, if you missed the live webinar video on Friday morning here is your chance to review the trades taken, the questions and answers are given, and the explanations of the webinar for each trading were over an hour broken down into three parts.

This is provided for Part 1: Order forms, Phantom Orders, Live Market Scalper Orders, Questions, and Responses. While part 2: Phantom orders, Atlas Line Live Trade, Trade Scalper Live Trades, Filtering Trades, Q & A

Want to learn more about how to trade the market? Check out our blog post here: https://daytradetowin.net/2019/11/21/price-action-trading-learn-more-how-to-trade-the-market/

Do You Want to Become a Professional Trader?

Do You Want to Become a Professional Trader?
More screens, more problems?

Even a trader who has years of experience can become anxious and lose passion. The dedication required to look at charts on a regular basis, maintain focus and optimism through ups and downs, and have the discipline to follow the rules can be a struggle.

Remember that human behavior focuses on the reward for things we are already good at. However, markets are dynamic. If they were predictable, you would be constantly rewarded and there would likely be too many traders in the world (thus reducing the monetary reward of trading). Like any other successful learning experience, trading involves a level of direction – a willingness to fail, strive for better, understand what has and has not worked, and regulate emotional impulses. In some cases, the best way to trade is to not trade at all.

Price action trading often involves identifying price patterns and following specific rules. Traders may prefer price action because it reduces emotional reliance. Can you boil your trading strategy down to a series of questions? First, is the market too slow, too fast, or just right? How about those price patterns – have any occurred recently according to the rules? If so, is it too late to place a trade? Will another trade occur in the near future? The ability to trade in an objective manner is often regarded as an attribute shared by successful traders.

If you are currently a profitable trader, congratulations! You are one of the few who have figured it out. For the other 99%, you have a few options.

For one, you could spend a lot of time and money developing your own techniques and testing them in live market conditions. If you work a full-time job or make a middle-class income or less, you may struggle to find the time or the finances to support this approach.

You could read books and learn valuable information. However, many trading books are theoretical and may not provide actionable strategies. And if they do, do they really work in today’s markets?

There are many trading courses in existence, but which ones are effective? Many people are capable of putting together a website with compelling content. Do you really have the time to research? And if so, which trading methods have stood the test of time?

Becoming a professional day trader is no easy task. If you would like more insight on trading methods that have proven to be effective for other traders, leave a comment!

E-mini Thanksgiving Trading Hours (CME Equities)

CME Holiday Trading 2018What are the Thanksgiving trading hours? As you may know, Thanksgiving Day, November 22, 2018, is a major U.S. holiday. Expect the markets to close early. We trade the E-mini S&P, which is a CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) equity product. See the official calendar information from CME’s website. The compact Excel file is probably the easiest to navigate, though there is no need as we have summarized the holiday market hours as follows. If you trade other markets, it is best to refer to the full CME calendar or your exchange’s calendar (whatever that may be for the markets you trade).

For CME equity products:

  • Nov. 21, 2018: normal market hours
  • Nov. 22, 2018 (Thanksgiving Day): early close (halt) at 1:00 p.m. ET (13:00 GMT-5). Markets reopen at 6:00 p.m. ET (18:00 GMT-5).
  • Nov. 23, 2018 (Black Friday): early close at 1:15 p.m. ET (13:15 GMT-5).

Be careful trading around holidays. Markets can become slow on early closure days or behave more erratically than usual. Some of the big players and trading systems may not be trading. Use the ATR (Average True Range) with a period value of four to compare volatility levels with non-holiday conditions.

Retailers & Tech Stocks

Black Friday (Nov. 23, 2018) and Cyber Monday (Nov. 26, 2018) are arguably the two largest shopping days of the year, as they symbolize the start of the holiday shopping season. Analysts will be looking at product and company performance. Expect reports to come out that will sway market direction. This is the final quarter of 2018, after all. This year is especially interesting, as many news outlets have talked about poorer market performance from major tech companies. For example, look at how Apple’s stock price dropped Nov. 19, 2018. Will holiday shopping provide a lift?

Rollover Reminder

As a reminder, Dec. 13, 2018 is the CME’s equity index roll date, so make a note to do a rollover in NinjaTrader on that date or soon after. Of course, later in the month, the markets will close for Christmas.