On Monday, May 28 (Memorial Day), expect the E-mini S&P and other CME products to halt early at 1 p.m. ET and reopen at 6 p.m. ET. This five-hour closure is detailed on CME’s page here. Expect an early trading halt for the CME’s equity, interest rate, FX, NYMEX & COMEX products. Note that the CME often uses CT (Central Time), so keep this in mind when thinking about your time zone.

Beyond Memorial Day

What’s the next trading holiday? July 4, 2018 (Independence Day). We will post more about this holiday soon. Beyond that, we have Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Friday, May 25 may be a slow trading day, as can happen the Friday before a three-day weekend. With the market moving fast lately, maybe this will be a nice break.

Every three months, futures traders need to perform a contract rollover. CME futures trading is structured in such a way that contracts expire on a quarterly cycle. In the months of March, June, September, and December, you will need to perform roll over steps to ensure that you’re trading an up to date contract. If not, your chart’s price activity will be inaccurate (among other problems).

Some trading platforms automatically roll over your contracts. Others specific a “continuous contract” where you simply don’t need to worry about doing anything – the contract is just always up to date. With NinjaTrader 8, the process has been made simpler, but a couple of steps are still involved.

Rollover Steps for NinjaTrader

1. In NinjaTrader’s Control Center, go to Tools > Database Management
2. The Database Management window should appear. Providing you are following these steps on or after the rollover date (see the list of dates here), the contracts needing a roll over should be listed. Click the Rollover button.
3. Go back to your chart(s) and you should see the new contract periods. For example, your ES 03-18 chart should now appear as ES 06-18. Keep in mind that markets like the CL roll over more frequently, so it’s good to visit the Database Management window on a monthly basis just to roll over anything that may need it.

Some traders prefer to roll over later than the rollover date. This is because it can take a couple of days for the volume to transition to the new contract. If you want to try this approach, you can monitor the volume on this page.

These pictures will help guide you further:

 

 

 

In late January, many media outlets said that the U.S. stock market was strong and resilient. Record highs were hit. Within a couple of weeks, the Dow experienced one of its largest losses ever. Many consider this to be a stock market crash. What happened?

Well, here are some of the possible explanations:

• Investors were worried high interest rates, bond yields, and inflation, so a sell-off occurred
• High frequency trading algorithms somehow caused the activity, perhaps by playing off one another or analyzing the markets and deciding that selling was the best option (a bug, development oversight, or maybe intentionally designed)
• After the market rose to new levels since the 2016 election, it was simply time for the market to regulate and come back down to “normal” levels

We retail traders have been dealing with increased volatility during this time period, even through today. Much of the time, the E-mini’s ATR (Average True Range) has exceeded levels safe levels for day trading (based on our assessment rules). For example, when the ATR is between one and four points, trading conditions are acceptable. During this highly volatile time, we have seen the ATR push 20.

Stock Market Crash: What You Can Do

What can you do? Sit on your hands, experiment, or engage in higher-risk trading. You can’t control the market or the conditions that may have caused the volatility. Yes, our methods have found many excellent trades, but if you decide to jump in on one of our signals, be very careful. A fast-moving market can easily flip direction and tag you out. If you’re going to trade, jump into simulation mode for a while first and get a feel for what it would be like trading with a live account.

Interestingly, the 2018 January Effect seems to indicate that 2018 will be an up year. If that’s true (and there is basis for historical accuracy), then what does that mean for this period of bearish activity? Well, by watching the video above, the markets may now be on the rise. If that’s the case, you can use the January Effect method to get in before the market reaches new highs.

 

Were you successful with any trades yesterday? The Atlas Line called out a clear winner, totaling about +2.5 points or +10 ticks. This short trade occurred in the E-mini S&P market at about 10 a.m. EST. The signal was generated at the close of the candle at about 2869. At that time, the Average True Range (ATR) was about 2.56. This is where we get the +2.5 profit target (round down to the nearest whole-point). While the maximum profit target may have been double that, once you’re in a trade, the rules say to closely monitor real-time conditions and adjust the profit and stop loss as you go. In some instances, an unexpected news event can dramatically increase volatility. If that happens, you may want to cut your losses and get out sooner than later. Fortunately, this trade was a winner with good volatility.

When trading, getting in as close as possible to the signal price is recommended. In this trade, John Paul got in within a tick or so. If you were trading with five contracts, the profit would have been over $600. Of course, the amount of contracts one can trade with is impacting by one’s ability to properly fund a trading account. Practice is encouraged, then after exploring the risks of trading and consulting with a financial professional, starting off with one contract is probably the best option.

Performance, Risk, and Approach

Students who are new to the price action approach taught by DayTradeToWin may consider the following:

• Reduce risk exposure by staying in a trade as little time as possible. Get in and hopefully get out with profit. The Atlas Line’s rules limit each trade to about 20 min. Often times, you’ll get out sooner.
• Before the trading day begins, check the financial news schedule. Market-impacting events are published ahead of time. You may want to stay out until the volatility subsides.
• Measure your trading success by looking at long-term performance. Look at each month and objectively compare the performance. NinjaTrader has an account performance feature that is useful in this regard. If you are unsatisfied, consider a new approach.

Traders have said how much they have enjoyed seeing videos of the ATO 2 and Atlas Line in use on one chart. Here is another recent video showing just that. The E-mini S&P is the market being traded here. The first signal that appears is an ATO 2 short. As John Paul has said previously, you take the first signal that appears. If you were in this trade and held onto it by the time the Atlas Line signal came, you could have placed another short or potentially increased your profit target. What’s interesting about this particular day is that many traders believed it was a bull market. Both of the DayTradeToWin.com indicators believed otherwise. When one trading system confirms another, John Paul believes there may be a better chance for profit. That said, no strategy or signal can guarantee profits. Trading is risky.

Don’t Be Baffled by Bull Markets

See the green line at the bottom of the chart? That’s the ATR (average true range). It’s what John Paul is using to calculate his profit target and stop loss. It’s also what he uses to measure volatility. When the ATR is between two and four points, the conditions are ideal for trading. Above or below that, it’s either too volatile (likely due to a news event) or too slow (perhaps no big market movers are trading, it’s after-hours, or the date is near a holiday). Look to the right of the ATR and you’ll see the current value in the price axis. With a period value of four for the indicator, the ATR says the profit target should be about two points. The rules for determining the profit target and stop loss are taught in the included live training.

Remember, a bullish market is expected if the January Effect applies. We will only know whether 2018 is a January Effect year by market close on January 31. In any case, you can always look for long and short trades using any of the trading methods taught in the eight-week Mentorship Program. All courses and software are included with lifetime licenses. Instead of having to travel to an office, DayTradeToWin.com brings the classroom to you. All lessons are live and are provided through an online trading room. Although John Paul is not calling out trades for you to take, he is teaching you how to be a trader first and foremost. If you want more time to review a particular topic, no worries. Because each class is recorded, you can always log in and watch a recording.

Take a look at these two recent days trading futures (E-mini S&P) using the Atlas Line and ATO 2 from DayTradeToWin.com. Both of these methods are included with the eight-week Mentorship Program. You can also buy them separately via the courses page. Most traders find it a wiser investment to get both with lifetime licenses by enrolling in the eight-week the Mentorship Program. Let’s take a look at the recent charts…

Trading Futures – Dec. 19

Some traders prefer to start out with just one of the Day Trade to Win methods. For many, that’s the ATO 2. It’s simple design produces up to two signals per day on average. These signals occur soon after the market opens. On this occasion, we are looking at a winner of approximately six ticks. How did we figure that out? The profit target is based on the ATR (Average True Range), which is the green line that appears at the bottom of the chart. In effect, the market “allowed” for six ticks because of the recent volatility levels. Excluding broker fees and providing you got in and out at the right times, this trade could have been worth about $75 using one contract. If you trade with more contracts, then you can see how the winnings can add up. We explain all the details in the included training.

Trading Futures – Dec. 15

We’re looking at a trending day here. Look at how both systems fired off winning signals before the market moved up. The Atlas Line signal appeared around 9:55 a.m. EST. If price did not hit the profit target, you would have left the trade using the time-based stop, 20 minutes later, at what should have been a profit. Soon after, the ATO 2 signal at 10:15 a.m. was worth around two points according to the ATR. A third winner was signaled by the ATO-C text. This indicates a “Trade Chaser” setup. Three winners before noon are not too bad for trading futures!

Take a look at these two back-to-back days of E-mini charts using the Atlas Line and ATO 2. Using 5-min charts, these two trading indicators can display signals that confirm one another. In many cases, the signals will appear before a big move occurs. This allows you to get into a potentially winning position ahead of time and ride the market up or down into success territory. If the trades goes against you, there’s a chance you could get out at a smaller profit, breakeven, or even a smaller loss than the safety net catastrophic stop. The included live training helps you identify the trades as well as understand what to do when a signal occurs. John Paul focuses on ways to potentially minimize risk. Let’s take a look at both charts to see what occurred…

Two Days, Two E-mini Charts

December 12, 2017

If you followed the rules, it’s possible that you could have walked away with +17 ticks. TheAtlas Line produced its first signal around 9:55 a.m. US/Eastern (New York time). It was a long trade, which is a prediction that the market will go up. The real-time market conditions allowed for a profit target of around +5 ticks. After that trade, about three Atlas Line Strength signals plotted (the small “S” marks). Later, the ATO 2 and more Strength signals appeared. Both systems were in agreement the market would rise. They were correct!

December 11, 2017

John Paul believes that similar signals from two or more trading systems may be a better predictor of anticipated price movement. Dec. 11 was another day when two systems agreed. In fact, the systems fire off signals around the same time. The ATO 2 trade came first, resulting in a possible +7 ticks. Around 10 a.m., a potential +6 tick winner appeared. The systems were also in agreement there were no trades later when the market began to chop around.