Trading Psychology: Is Long-term Success Possible?

In your growth as a day trader, have you used momentum, stochastics, moving averages, or Bollinger Bands? May have tried to come up with their own strategies, tested them for a period of time, went back to the drawing board or moved forward with actual trading. What tends to happen is that systems that do perform well for a period often do not continue performing well weeks or months later. It is as if the market turns on a dime and no longer exhibits the movements necessary to bring profits to those once successful systems. Why is this? Is the market conspiring against you?

One thought is that price activity is ultimately controlled or exhibits certain tendencies over a period of time. Then “those in charge,” the secret pushers and pullers of currency and electronic data, eventually change the game and pull out the rug from the rest of us. Is that truly so? Or are there cycles?

Indeed, one may ponder the deep questions about what actually works behind the scenes of global currency systems. But, in doing so, one has to take care of themselves and likely some sort of family. For reasons of practicality, then, it makes sense to find trading systems that appear to work over long periods despite any changeups. Does DayTradeToWin offer such trading systems? You may review their hundreds of videos from many years and judge.

For most, the goal is to consistently make money day trading on a regular basis. However, no system can really guarantee such a thing unless they want to attract the attention of regulators. And besides, who is to say a system that has worked well for a decade will work tomorrow? Who can actually guarantee that? Like anything in life, a certain level of probability is involved. We work with probabilities all the time when we make decisions. We think about what we want, what our overall goals are, what we want to become, how to get there, what missteps we’ve made, and so on.

At least day trading videos like the one above offer a glimpse of what it’s like to trade the method in real-time. This includes how the signal is “painted” or “plotted” in terms of timing and placing an order. We see two systems in use: the DayTradeToWin Roadmap and Trade Scalper. The Roadmap can provide an overall indication of potential reversal areas. This means that small trends can be potentially identified as well. The Roadmap provides signals as well. Coupled with the Trade Scalper, many short-term opportunities are identified.

John Paul from DayTradeToWin.com makes the case these methods work well together. He indicates the best way to go about learning to day trade is the 8-Week Mentorship Program.

Should You Trade 24-Hours Per Day?

Perhaps it would be better to name the title of this post, “Should You Consider Trading All Times of the Day?” That’s because most of us would probably agree sitting in front of a computer for nearly a day without any sleep would make sensible trading quite difficult. Some of us who have visited casinos have seen people there who are sitting in front of slot machines for many hours. In fact, it’s quite possible to see someone “on a roll” or believes the next big win is around the corner, having sat there for 12 hours or longer. That is not too healthy as our bodies need movement and rest.

That’s why it’s more sensible to trade only when the ideal market conditions tend to occur as related to the day trading systems you use. If you have day trading systems that tend to work better during more volatile times, then perhaps trading at or around market open is best. I am not so aware of systems that do well in sideways markets, but if you do use one such method, then perhaps trading in off-hours is more ideal.

This video reviews Trade Scalper signals and demonstrates a real-time signal example. This signal occurred late in the day, so one of the advices provided was to avoid trading into the close. If you just want to get in and out quickly, the Trade Scalper may be the best approach. For scalping, this is a big move worth +3 points. Not all trades will be this great. The ATR (Average True Range) determines the profit target. The maximum profit target on a 5-minute chart may be around 4 points. On average, somewhere around 2 points is expected. On a 1-minute chart, you can expect around the same profit target. The 1-minute chart is used in place of the 5-minute when the 5-minute is too fast.

And when you get the Trade Scalper, there is no need to rush into trading real money right away. You can use NinjaTrader’s real-time simulator to get a feel for how it all works. Is the method easy? Fairly so; of course this will depend on experience, comprehension, and so forth. One can easily follow the signals and place a trade according to the rules. Memorizing the method isn’t a requirement beyond knowing trade management.

DayTradeToWin Reviews ABC Method Rules for Better Trading

Why would you want to trade futures in the afternoon when the morning is said to have the best opportunities? Because still more opportunities exist in the afternoon. Perhaps you were busy in the morning or sought to recover from a couple of trades that didn’t go so well. Revenge trading or any type of emotionally driven trading is discouraged. Rather, sticking to objective rules ensures that one can more easily measure the success of an approach over a given period.

The ABC Method was designed for afternoon trading. Multiple entry opportunities can be found in the afternoon before market close. However, some days there are simply no signals. Trending days tend to trigger ABC entry opportunities. That’s because the ABC is a breakout method. If price exceeds the prior period’s high and low via two closing candles, then expect a signal in the new period. That means only periods B and C yield entry opportunities. period A merely establishes the high and low for a possible entry in period B.

It’s important to remember the first two periods are 2.5 hours in duration. The A period begins at market open, 9:30 a.m. If this sounds like too much work, you may consider the ATO 2 method which includes the ABC Indicator. Another option is the 8-Week Mentorship Program. With the latter, all courses and software are included with Lifetime licenses.

If you want to see these signals live, sign up in one of the forms on the DayTradeToWin website. Every few weeks, an invitation is sent so that new people can compare their live charts with John Paul’s to see his methods are for real.

Futures Trading: E-mini, Euro, Nasdaq, Dow, Micro

Finding a day trading course or indicator that can trade the E-mini S&P 500 ES, Euro, Nasdaq, Dow, and Micro E-mini S&P 500 is not so easy. Day trading websites are a dime a dozen and it seems that many of these websites are put to together in an amateur way. No disrespect intended – it is just that the way the pages are designed and the information is presented, sometimes it’s difficult to assess what you’re getting. The way DayTradeToWin approaches day trading is with simplicity in mind, and that includes the main DayTradeToWin.com website. There, you can get a sense that four trading methods are basically offered: Atlas Line, Trade Scalper, ATO 2, and 8-Week Mentorship.

The focus of the video above is of DayTradeToWin’s Atlas Line. As you can see, there are a few aspects to the indicator that are important: the dashed line, the main Long and Short signals, the bounce Long and Short signals, and long and short Pullback (P) and Strength (s) signals. How interesting it is to see how all of these signals work together to form one complete strategy! The approach is aided by the free ATR (Average True Range) which serves to provide the profit target and stop loss amounts.

Is it possible to consistently win in the markets? That’s the goal of every trader. It’s best to take trading one day at a time rather than overwhelm yourself with what-ifs. By all means, measure cumulative wins and losses over a good period of time: two weeks, one month, three months, six months, etc. and see how successful you’ve been. Sure, you could have an amazing month next month, but if the performance is not so good, do you want to keep trading? Does it make financial sense? Sure, past performance does not indicate future results, and the way that phrase is commonly worded, the meaning can go either way.

Clear, objective thinking and following the rules of the method will be the best way to assess the viability of that method. Does it work better than other systems you’ve used? Those that you’ve developed? Did you at least make back your money that you spent on the system? Did you learn one or more things? Even with losses, day trading can teach us a lot about ourselves – how well prepared we are, how we perform under pressure, what it’s like to potentially make money or have such potential in a relatively short period of time, to reach heights, to reach lows, and pull ourselves up with renewed insight.

3+ Reasons Why a 2nd Opinion on Your Trades is Important

Here’s the latest DayTradeToWin video in which many trading signals are reviewed. First, we start with the Atlas Line trading software. As demonstrated about 2:00 into the video, the signal did not work out. That’s just a part of trading. Sometimes, additional signals the same day will set you back on the path to profit. Other times, you’ll hope to make profit the next day or thereafter. The idea is to have consistent wins over a specific period of time, which could be 30 days or longer.

If you had the ATO 2 and the Atlas Line or the Trade Scalper and Atlas Line, you could say to yourself, “I am only going to take signals from either system (or both systems) when both signals agree on the anticipated direction and the signals occur around the same time.” If you do just that, as demonstrated in the video, there can be great results. However, such results cannot be guaranteed – “can” means “possibly,” which is not as definite as “will.” The market will do what the market wants to do. Again, it’s a matter of cumulative wins outsizing cumulative losses per period of observation.

Adding a third method to the chart to get a third opinion can also be helpful. That’s what happens here when the Trade Scalper is added. Notice how there are multiple Short signals for all three systems that “follow” the price movement down? That was a great area of opportunity for winners. The following Strength (S) and Pullback (P) signals represent additional opportunities from the Atlas Line, however, some of those signals did not work out. Do you notice any additional signals from the ATO 2 or Atlas Line around that time? No. Well, that’s exactly demonstrating why it’s important to use multiple systems!

Profit Target & Stop Loss Rules: Managing Risk

So, like the thumbnail of the video says, how does one trade rule-based strategies? By following the rules. Are you going to be taught all the rules in this video for the trading system(s) shown? No, of course not. That’s because you have to purchase the trading system in order to learn the rules. This is merely a demonstration with emphasis that it’s important to follow rules rather than going off-course, using your imagination, guessing, or stretching recommendations.

There are so many ways begin day trading. Just looking at the video recommendations when writing this present soptions regarding the mental game of trading as a whole, how to research trading, how to use relative volume to predict home run trades, and various steps to perform a specific strategy. Are any of these methods going to be valuable? Possibly, in terms of some self-understanding. However, the nature of such things is that sometimes a paid method is a paid method for a reason – it’s exclusive because it’s worthwhile. If someone can make money selling it and trading at the same time, why not? However, a lot of paid courses are junk. Many in the industry say this – rather than teaching exact rules, the course will show you demonstration after demonstration, providing little in the way of rules.

Rest assured, DayTradeToWin has all of the rules clearly defined. If you’re not successful, it’s just because the market isn’t aligning itself with the rules. This can be a good thing, as there is no need to blame the self. That’s the great thing about objective trading – no need to have emotions take charge. If you did everything correctly and it works or it doesn’t, you did everything correctly in either case.

The main purpose of the video above is to go over multiple Atlas Line signals. If you see a number of winning signals, that may provide a positive impression the method works consistently. It will be up to you to apply the rules that you learn. There are no guarantees in trading, only probabilities, and estimating on those probabilities is a most curious and risky endeavor! We wish you well. However, trading using a specific stop loss and profit target ruleset is one way to control risk.

If you, ahead of time, configure many stop losses and profit targets within NinjaTrader’s ATM Strategy area, then you can select the most appropriate given current circumstances. These stop losses and profit targets are not set in stone – you can modify them on the fly once your initial order has been filled. The easiest way to do this is by enabling NinjaTrader’s chart trader feature then dragging and dropping the profit target and stop loss to their desired values. Are there any caveats? Yes, doing so places you in the “back of the line,” so to speak. Your profit target or stop loss may not get hit when expected, so be careful.

With the DayTradeToWin trading methods, the ATR (Average True Range) is always used to determine the profit target and stop with the exception of some chart types where their use doesn’t make sense (i.e. range charts). The ATR is configured with a period value of four. Why four? Because that means the last four bars are used to determine the value. If greater than four, the calculation is based on older data. If the value is less than four, less data is used that may only give a picture of recent activity, which may be really dramatic or slow (thus limiting potentials).

Do You Want to Become a Professional Trader?

Do You Want to Become a Professional Trader?
More screens, more problems?

Even a trader who has years of experience can become anxious and lose passion. The dedication required to look at charts on a regular basis, maintain focus and optimism through ups and downs, and have the discipline to follow the rules can be a struggle.

Remember that human behavior focuses on the reward for things we are already good at. However, markets are dynamic. If they were predictable, you would be constantly rewarded and there would likely be too many traders in the world (thus reducing the monetary reward of trading). Like any other successful learning experience, trading involves a level of direction – a willingness to fail, strive for better, understand what has and has not worked, and regulate emotional impulses. In some cases, the best way to trade is to not trade at all.

Price action trading often involves identifying price patterns and following specific rules. Traders may prefer price action because it reduces emotional reliance. Can you boil your trading strategy down to a series of questions? First, is the market too slow, too fast, or just right? How about those price patterns – have any occurred recently according to the rules? If so, is it too late to place a trade? Will another trade occur in the near future? The ability to trade in an objective manner is often regarded as an attribute shared by successful traders.

If you are currently a profitable trader, congratulations! You are one of the few who have figured it out. For the other 99%, you have a few options.

For one, you could spend a lot of time and money developing your own techniques and testing them in live market conditions. If you work a full-time job or make a middle-class income or less, you may struggle to find the time or the finances to support this approach.

You could read books and learn valuable information. However, many trading books are theoretical and may not provide actionable strategies. And if they do, do they really work in today’s markets?

There are many trading courses in existence, but which ones are effective? Many people are capable of putting together a website with compelling content. Do you really have the time to research? And if so, which trading methods have stood the test of time?

Becoming a professional day trader is no easy task. If you would like more insight on trading methods that have proven to be effective for other traders, leave a comment!

E-mini Thanksgiving Trading Hours (CME Equities)

CME Holiday Trading 2018What are the Thanksgiving trading hours? As you may know, Thanksgiving Day, November 22, 2018, is a major U.S. holiday. Expect the markets to close early. We trade the E-mini S&P, which is a CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) equity product. See the official calendar information from CME’s website. The compact Excel file is probably the easiest to navigate, though there is no need as we have summarized the holiday market hours as follows. If you trade other markets, it is best to refer to the full CME calendar or your exchange’s calendar (whatever that may be for the markets you trade).

For CME equity products:

  • Nov. 21, 2018: normal market hours
  • Nov. 22, 2018 (Thanksgiving Day): early close (halt) at 1:00 p.m. ET (13:00 GMT-5). Markets reopen at 6:00 p.m. ET (18:00 GMT-5).
  • Nov. 23, 2018 (Black Friday): early close at 1:15 p.m. ET (13:15 GMT-5).

Be careful trading around holidays. Markets can become slow on early closure days or behave more erratically than usual. Some of the big players and trading systems may not be trading. Use the ATR (Average True Range) with a period value of four to compare volatility levels with non-holiday conditions.

Retailers & Tech Stocks

Black Friday (Nov. 23, 2018) and Cyber Monday (Nov. 26, 2018) are arguably the two largest shopping days of the year, as they symbolize the start of the holiday shopping season. Analysts will be looking at product and company performance. Expect reports to come out that will sway market direction. This is the final quarter of 2018, after all. This year is especially interesting, as many news outlets have talked about poorer market performance from major tech companies. For example, look at how Apple’s stock price dropped Nov. 19, 2018. Will holiday shopping provide a lift?

Rollover Reminder

As a reminder, Dec. 13, 2018 is the CME’s equity index roll date, so make a note to do a rollover in NinjaTrader on that date or soon after. Of course, later in the month, the markets will close for Christmas.

Trading System: More Winning E-mini Signals (ATO 2 & Atlas Line)

Yesterday, we posted a video of some great ATO 2 and Atlas Line signals. Here’s another video showing another set of great long trades. Today’s signals appeared at approximately 10 a.m. EDT. Once the related bar closes, a signal appears. At that point, the idea is to place a trade as quickly as possible based on the rules of the trading system. One of the quickest ways to enter a position is via a market order. Of course, you can use a pending order (e.g. a limit order) ahead of time, if you want to be prepared early.

Was today a trending day? It looks like it. We traders really like trending days, but they’re pretty rare. Unfortunately, it’s more common to see choppy activity or short periods of time where price fluctuates from bullish to bearish. The goal is to come out ahead at the end of 30, 90, 180+ days. Of course, practicing with a live, simulated account at first is a great idea. Jumping into live trading with real money without much preparation can be a recipe for failure.

Some of the video covers how to install indicators into NinjaTrader. An indicator can be considered a trading system. We like to think that a trading system is an entire strategy of how and when to place a trade, how to manage it, and when to get out (at a profit or loss). Indicators can also be very simple. The free indicators provided by NinjaTrader do not provide trading signals. However, the ATR and Bar Timer can be very helpful in timing orders and gauging risk.

Backing Up Your Trading System

What do you do with indicators after importing them? We recommend keeping them in an accessible folder or backing them up in a secure cloud account. In the event you get a new computer or a hard drive replacement, you’ll probably want to restore your indicators as quickly as possible.

Some folks are busy working day jobs and cannot practice trading from 9:30 a.m. EDT to noon. This is considered one of the best times to trade. If you can’t leave your day job or install software on your work computer, how can you practice? NinjaTrader has a feature called Market Replay that lets you download market data and replay it as though it’s occurring live. This feature is also called Playback.

Want to get your hands on the ATO 2 and Atlas Line? Contact [email protected] for a special offer. The official ATO 2 and Atlas Line pages contain additional information about each method.

Swing Trading Strategy for 2018 – Learn Today

Back in early February, we posted about how the January Effect forecast predicted the E-mini would close at a higher price in December than the price at the end of January. The January Effect is used to predict overall market direction for the year. The strategy can be used for swing trading.

By switching to a daily chart, you can get a better idea of annual price activity. Since April 2018, we have seen price rise to higher levels. In fact, the four arrows show positive monthly price action. This may be an indication the January Effect is correct. We’ll need to see how the rest of the year pans out. However, if you are confident in the forecast, you can find long opportunities for swing trading.

Swing Trading Using Fibonacci

The swing trading strategy uses a simple Fibonacci tool. Many platforms have them. In NinjaTrader, the tool can be configured to show three levels: 0%, 50%, and 100%. When configured this way, you can easily find the halfway point between two price values. By identifying the recent highs and lows and the halfway point, we can look for long opportunities that match the anticipate long direction predicted by the January Effect. Jump to 3:28 in the video for an example. When price surpasses the 50% point during a retracement to the recent high, that is the entry. The idea is to ride price up and hopefully get out with a profit.

Keep in mind that this type of trading requires you to hold a position over many days. Not all brokers and accounts are equipped. The longer you’re in a position, the more risk you’re subjected to.

Will price continue to stay above the 50% level established earlier in the year? Only time will tell. Will the 2018 January Effect maintain its historical accuracy record? We’ll have to see!

Sign up for the next Mentorship class to gain more insight. We have a new class that begins on August 14, 2018.