Consumer Spending Impacts Futures Markets

Are these long trends in the market the result of optimistic holiday consumer spending expectations? Watch the trading video to see what happened on November 21, 2017 in the E-mini S&P. The January Effect rules confirmed a long (buy) trade was occurring. Remember, a retracement to the 50% level or exceeding past highs can trigger the long trade. The January Effect is not software based – you have to manually look at a daily chart and find the trades with your own eyes. When you switch to a 5-minute chart and use a signal software indicator like the Atlas Line, you can look for complimentary long signals. If these signals match the trend up, then John Paul believes you have a solid indication to buy the market (go long).

Not every trade will be a winner. There’s risk in trading and it’s important to know what to expect. John Paul recommends only trading with money you’ve set aside for high-risk investments (i.e. don’t day trade your rent). One of the great things about is that they help provide you with a full practice environment that encourages simulated trading. In live sim trading mode with NinjaTrader, you can get a feel for how the methods work without taking on any financial risk. If the results look good to you over a period of time, you may then want to consider trading with a live, funded account. For some traders, this may take a couple weeks. For others, a couple of months. It’s all up to you, how much time you have to practice, and how quickly you want to take it.

Consumer Spending Reports

As a reminder, the market can be rather slow around major holidays (such as Thanksgiving). Expect today (the Friday after Thanksgiving, aka “Black Friday”) to be slow. Perhaps next week, with the result of customer purchasing reports, we will see higher than usual volatility. Black Friday and “Cyber Monday” may be used to initially estimate consumer spending patterns for the rest of the holiday season. Within the last few months, Forbes reported that consumer spending over Black Friday weekend is forecast to grow by 47% year over year. RetailMeNot, possibly the largest coupon website, reported that over 50% of its users intended to make a purchase on Cyber Monday.

Profit Target for Trending Markets

The recent video that was published shows how the Atlas Line and January Effect can be used together to find winning long trades. We did not show how easy it can be to place these types of trades with a profit target and stop loss. That’s where this video comes in. It’s the same trade as yesterday, only John Paul explains how you could have taken the trade using the DOM. He used a regular market order soon after the signal appeared. He had an ATM Strategy preconfigured, which automatically placed the profit target and stop loss at preset values. Furthermore, Chart Trader allowed for the green profit target and red stop loss line to appear on the chart. These visuals help guide your trading.

As demonstrated in the video, trading is all about catching the big moves before they occur. Many indicators focus on complex interpretations of price behavior. They are difficult to trade because you are supposed to make a quick decision of what route to take. With the Atlas Line, you are taught how to look at the ATR (Average True Range) to calculate both your profit target and stop loss. From there, it’s trade management until your profit target or stop loss is hit. Four different stop losses are taught. If your profit target is not hit, you take whatever stop loss comes first.

Profit Target – What Happens Next?

John Paul expects more bullish trending activity to occur as we near the end of 2017. Some traders cannot afford to hold positions overnight or for multiple days. This is where the Atlas Line is useful, as it can potentially identify trends intraday, where most day traders typically do their trading. If you have the Atlas Line, January Effect, and ATO 2 all signaling “go long,” wouldn’t you feel better taking the trade? The best way to get all the courses and software is through the eight-week coaching program, Mentorship. A new Mentorship class begins February 22, 2018. All courses and software are included with lifetime licenses. To sign up and get the materials early, click here for the Mentorship page.

Trading Predictions – January Effect & Atlas Line

Right now, it looks like the E-mini S&P is on its way up. John Paul says this with confidence because of his belief in the January Effect and its trading predictions. The January Effect is a predictive method for the direction of price throughout the year. Although there are no performance guarantees, John Paul believes in the method’s consistency. Because 2017 is considered an “up year” by the technique, traders can look for long (buy) trades when price begins to retrace to previous highs. This may seem difficult to understand, so take a moment to watch the video.

A new high was recently reached and price dropped soon after. Now that it seems price is moving back up again, we can use NinjaTrader’s Fibonacci tool to assist trading predictions and find the halfway point from the recent low to the recent high. This 50% level is the threshold for the entry. Once price surpasses that level, it’s time to look for entries. Some traders prefer to wait until price rises above the recent high, believing this serves for additional confirmation.

The January Effect says that 2017 will close higher. This means that price may continue to rise throughout November and December. It’s likely that price will also drop at times, which only sets up opportunities for additional January Effect trades.

Atlas Line Trading Predictions

If you are looking for intraday moves based on the January Effect, consider using the Atlas Line. The Atlas Line produces signals and estimates where the market will head on a given day. If the January Effect is telling you to go long and the Atlas Line is comparable, then perhaps it is wise to follow the compounding signals. At about two minutes into the video, you can see how the Atlas Line called out a nice big move before it occurred. Will we see more trending patters to the long side? We will have to listen closely to what the market tells us.

Interested in learning more? We have another eight-week trading school session starting January 21, 2017. All of our techniques are taught. You will get all the courses and software. Click here for details.

Day Trading Indicators – Atlas Line’s 5 Winners

Not all day trading indicators are the same. You can somewhat classify the Atlas Line from as an indicator, but it has qualities that make it a comprehensive trading system. For example, you’re taught how to manage each trade: profit targets, stop losses, and how to ride each trade out. You’re taught how to validate market conditions in order to know whether trading is too risky and if you should stay out.  The indicator is also more forward-looking than others, meaning that its signals are meant to be used for the near future instead of constant optimization from past inputs. Truly, the Atlas Line is in its own league.

Let’s look at this chart and trading video recently published by What’s the first thing that catches you? For me, I notice how price chopped back and forth in a channel. If I was hoping for a trend or trying to pick tops and bottoms, I would have probably found a significant loss. The Atlas Line appears to have been successful in finding opportune moments for its entry signals. Just look at all of them. Only one of them appears to be a losing trade. That’s not bad – five out of six were winners. Note that your live trading results may vary. If market conditions were exactly as shown and you followed the strategy perfectly, you should have won around +24 ticks, which is about $300 USD, before any broker or other trading fees. Not bad compared to the other day trading indicators that are out there.

Day Trading Indicators & Trade Management

What can be said about each of these trades? Well, the profit targets are all at one point or more per trade. When you look at the ATR (Average True Range), you can see what that is. The ATR reached two points earlier in the day then dropped later on. This is common behavior in the E-mini. You see, the Atlas Line uses a dynamic value for the profit target and stop loss. If market conditions are good, you will pretty much use the current ATR value as the profit target. And for the stop loss, you will double the ATR value. That is the largest stop (the catastrophic stop). The goal, of course, is to get out at profit. If a loss occurs, you hope to get out at a smaller profit, breakeven, or a smaller loss (using whatever stop strategy comes into play first).

Trading Holidays Coming Soon in 2017

Day Trading 2018With 2017 coming to a close and holidays up ahead, it’s important to be aware of upcoming trading holidays. The CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) website has all of the information for upcoming closures. Did you know that the market will close early on two consecutive days for the Thanksgiving holiday? Will you be able to trade on Veteran’s Day? Let’s take a look at what the CME says. The hours posted here apply to CME equity, interest rate, FX, energy, metals, and DME markets. This includes the E-mini S&P.

Firstly, the times below are provided in US/Eastern (ET) format. On Nov. 5, clocks in the U.S. will “fall back” an hour, making you feel like you had an extra hour of sleep and more daylight at the end of the day. In effect, US/Eastern time switches from GMT-4 to GMT-5 (or UTC-4 to UTC-5, if you prefer that labeling).

Also, note that on some holidays, the markets reopen in the evening the same day. Generally, market activity is much slower around big holidays. It’s probably best that you stay out and wait for normal conditions to return. Use an ATR with a period value of four.

Additional Trading Holidays

The next major holiday is Veteran’s Day, Nov. 10. The markets will be open normal hours. No closures or odd market hours.

After that, Thanksgiving Day falls on Thursday, Nov. 23. On Thanksgiving Day, the markets close early at 1:00 p.m. ET. On the following day (Nov. 23, a Friday), the markets will also close early, but at 1:15 p.m. ET.

Next, we have December. As you probably expect, the markets are closed Christmas Day (Dec. 25). The markets reopen Christmas Day at 6:00 p.m.

New Year’s Eve is a Sunday. New Year’s Day, Jan. 1, 2018, falls on a Monday and the markets will be closed. Markets reopen at 6:00 p.m. that day.

This trading calendar for 2017 should fill in the blanks for any additional days.

24-Hour Time Basics for Day Trading Charts

If you’re going to be trading, you’ll probably encounter the 24-hour time format. Many folks in the U.S. are not familiar with reading 24-hour time. Instead, we frequently use regular time, which may seem even crazier. Regular time splits the day into two 12-hour sections. In each section, we count from 12:00 to 1:00, then from 1:00 to 12:00. To someone from outer space, regular time may seem more difficult than the 24-hour format. After all, in the 24-hour format, all you are doing is counting from 00:00 (midnight) to 24:00 (midnight again) for each hour of the day.

NinjaTrader uses 24-hour time for its charts. Currently, there is no way to get around that. Until you reach a point where 24-hour time is second-nature, you’ll have to learn how to do some mental math or memorization.

24-Hour Time Tips

  • There is no need to do any conversion, as 24-hour and regular times will be the same for times between 1 a.m. and noon, e.g. 1:00 on a 24-hour clock is 1:00 a.m. on a regular clock.
  • After 1 p.m. regular time, to get the regular time from a 24-hour time, subtract 12. For example, 19:30 – 12 = 7:30 p.m. regular time.
  • Confused if 00:00 and 24:00 are the same? You should be. Many 24-hour clocks consider this the same time (midnight).
  • Time zone conversion will still work the same way. Add or subtract the time difference as you normally would.

Want to learn how to read a 24-hour clock faster? Get a wristwatch that has both formats or change your smartphone’s time display. If you have more questions, check out this helpful website and the pictures below.

24-Hour Time Chart

24-Hour Time Clock

Day Trading Strategies for Beginners & New Traders

Webinars are one of the best ways to get a feel for how well a person’s day trading strategies work in live conditions. Occasionally, DayTradeToWin holds live webinars to provide just that, as well as educate attendees on a variety of topics. Just recently, John Paul conducted a live webinar and showed his ATO 2, Trade Scalper, and Atlas Line trades to a room full of traders.

For gauging a market’s tradability, knowledge of the ATR (Average True Range) is essential. Set your trading platform’s ATR setting to 4. When the ATR is between two and four points on the chart, trading conditions are ideal. However, an ATR above 5 points or below 1 point means the market is too fast or too slow, respectively. Slow conditions are also apparent when many dojis or short candlesticks appear on minute-based charts. Keep in mind, the ATR is always looking back at the last 4 bars (using our recommended setting), so it is not an indication of future levels. Once you place a trade, you can continue to monitor the ATR and adapt your profit target and stop loss based on your ATR-based strategy.

Ever look at NinjaTrader’s SuperDOM and wonder what all those buying and selling numbers mean? In the webinar video, you can gain an understanding of this so-called Level II price data. For a historical interpretation, check out NinjaTrader’s Times & Sales window. Note that with most DayTradeToWin strategies, we avoid interpretation of buying and selling numbers. In the old days of trading, these numbers were more useful. High-frequency trading and other changes have made our price action approach different.

One of the great new features of NinjaTrader 8 is the ability to place MIT (Market If Touched) orders. Consider the literal interpretation of “Market If Touched.” One could say that if your order is touched by the current, fluctuating market price, then you enter the trade at market value. MIT orders are useful in preventing slippage, which is when a tick or more of potential profit is lost due to unfortunate market conditions. The webinar video also explains limit orders, stop orders, and other helpful order tips.

More Day Trading Strategies

John Paul also touches on the topic of front-running. If you Google that term, you’ll probably come up with an explanation of dirty tactic employed by unscrupulous brokers. That is not what John Paul refers to. Instead, his meaning refers to getting filled a tick ahead of the desired price. It’s a tick less of profit, but it can be the difference between having your stop loss hit. You probably would not want to front-run scalping trades, because you’re only going for a couple of ticks. It’s probably better to front-run in trades when you’re going for a point or more of profit.

Aside from the other day trading strategies, it’s also important that you stick around for the part where he discusses closing out trades. Of course, not every profit target will get hit. You should know how to manually close out a trade in order to reduce excessive loss. The DOM has two buttons designed for that purpose. Be sure to watch John Paul’s specific approach based on years of looking at the markets.

How to Place Trades in NinjaTrader 8 SuperDOM

Use NinjaTrader? You will have to know how to place trades. The SuperDOM is what we use. In other platforms, it’s called a price ladder or a matrix. Think of it as a remote control for the market. You can place different types of buy and sell orders. Open a SuperDOM window via NinjaTrader’s Control Center > New > SuperDOM (Dynamic). You should then see the SuperDOM. With the SuperDOM window now visible, you must make one very important adjustment: select the instrument you want to trade. Normally, the instrument you select (e.g. ES 12-17) should match the chart you’re looking at.

There are three types of orders that you’re probably going to use. The most common will probably be Market Orders. These orders are placed at the current market price (whatever the market is currently trading at) and can be placed long or short (buy or sell). On the SuperDOM, the current market price has a yellow highlight. Note that the SuperDOM has two columns: a buy column on the left and a sell column on the right. At the bottom of each column, there is a Market button. Click this button to place a corresponding Market Order.

Limit orders are the next order type. Think of this type as saying to the market, “I want this price or better.” There are specific rules for placing limit orders. If you want to place a buy limit order, you can only place the order below where price is currently trading. Left-click the price you want in the buy column of the SuperDOM below the current market price. If prompted, click Yes to accept the order. The same approach works for placing sell limit orders, only you will need to place them above where price is currently trading. After placing a limit order, note how “LMT” appears on the SuperDOM to indicate the type of order in play. If price touches your limit order, there is no guarantee that you will be filled. If price goes through your limit order, then you should be filled.

How to Place Trades Using 2 More Order Types

The next common order type is a stop order. A stop order is almost like the opposite of a limit order. Place a buy stop order above the current price you want to buy at. Similarly, place a sell stop order below the price you want to sell at. To place a stop order, click your middle mouse button on the desired price in either the buy or sell column. A little popup will appear, that lets you specify the limit (effectively making your order a “stop with limit” order), which indicates the amount of slippage you are willing to accept. If you leave the value at 0, then you are not willing to accept any slippage. If you set the value to 1, then you are willing to accept 1 tick of slippage. Stop orders can also be used as a protective measure to get you out at a specific price. Refer to the video for more information. If you hold the Ctrl key on your keyboard and use the middle mouse button click, a regular stop order will be used.

Lastly, the video discussed MIT (Market If Touched). MIT orders help ensure a fill when price touches a desired price, instead of going through. An MIT order is placed as a limit order, which then becomes a market order. To place one of these, use the Ctrl key + the left mouse button.

To learn how to place trades, be sure to watch the video in its entirety because there are a number of important tips at the end. See more trading videos here.

Profit Targets and Stops – January Effect

Do you recall John Paul’s predictions from earlier this year? He said the E-mini S&P would go up by the end of 2017. Look at what’s happened so far. The E-mini S&P has reached all-time highs! This video summarizes the January Effect trading strategy as well as an approach to finding additional opportunities in the next couple of months. You’ll learn enough to know where to place those profit targets and stops.

In short, the January Effect works like this: if the month of January closes higher (usually January 31) than the price when it opened (usually January 2), then you can expect to also close higher in December of the same year. Of course, any trading method is subject to fail with a significant financial loss, so only trade with money you can afford to part with. In most cases, price rises consistently throughout the year, which provides many entry opportunities. If your brokerage account allows, you can ride the price up, hopefully to profit territory.

How Do You Place Your Profit Targets and Stops?

The January Effect entries require a bit of understanding. Firstly, you have to wait for price to drop. This will need to occur for a few days. Then you’ll need to see price begin to head back up for about six or so days. Use the Fibonacii tool and configure it to show three lines: a line at 0%, one at 50%, and the other at 100%. This helps because to can accurately see the halfway point between two price values. Apply the Fibonacci tool to the retracement. Wait for price to pass through the 50% with momentum and you have yourself an entry. To know when to get out, watch the video.

This is just one of the many trading methods John Paul will touch on during the next eight-week Mentorship Program. You will learn all of his trading strategies. By the end of the eight weeks, you’ll have a complete understanding. All courses and software are included with lifetime licenses. It’s one of the best deals for personal coaching (with solid, unique methods) available today.

Trading Systems for 2017: ATO 2 and Atlas Line

Two of the best trading systems for 2017 are the Atlas Line and ATO 2. John Paul’s recent webinar taught traders how to handle slow market activity often seen during summer months. As we head into late summer, we’ve fortunately seen an increase in volatility. The ATR (Average True Range) is used as the indicator of volatility, with a range of 2 to 4 points considered good for trading. We’ve seen a few days lately where it’s reached around 3 points. Faster markets mean more potential, which means larger possible profits (and losses). Take a look at this ATO 2 trade in this video, for example.

This trade was taken at the end of a live webinar. You can hear John Paul answering questions from one of the attendees. The ATO 2 trade can take up to twenty minutes or so. That’s why the video was sped up. If price did not reach the profit target, one of the stop strategies would have been used, such as a 20-minute time-based stop. Let’s say price suddenly dropped away from the profit target. That’s where the catastrophic stop is used. It’s a safety net for sudden and significant loss. This trade was worth +2.25 points, equivalent to $112.50 per contract on the E-mini S&P.

The website has a free trading downloads section that contains many useful links. You can download the NinjaTrader 8 trading platform, a free news indicator, and time sync software to keep your computer’s clock in check.

What about the Atlas Line? Let’s jump to early in the webinar. The Atlas Line produced a short signal at 2459.25. This signal appeared because of two closing candles below the dashed blue line. If price produces two closing bars above the line, a long signal will appear. Notice how this trade appeared soon after market open. The ATR is above 2.5 points. For the additional Strength and Pullback trades, look to see if the market is overbought or oversold. Look at the 10:05 a.m. Strength signal. Even though it worked out, John Paul believes it was riskier because the market was more oversold.

Trading Systems for 2017:  Atlas Line

The Atlas Line can produce two or more trades per day. When factoring in the Strength and Pullback trades, you have plenty of opportunities. Pick the best. There’s no need to chase the high-risk trades. At about 22:00 into the video, follow along and try your hand at guessing the profit target. If the target is touched, then you may want to close our of the trade. You can close out at market or use an MIT order (market if touched). Because this was 2+ point trade on a Friday, it’s better to be more conservative. Exit the trade. If you lose a tick, it’s not a big deal.

The Mentorship Program is the best way to get the ATO 2 and Atlas Line in one package. In fact, you get over 10 strategies with lifetime licenses. We have new classes that begin all the time. The next one is August 28. Click here to check out the details. Classes are twice a week in a webinar room. You can see John Paul’s charts as he explains how to find trades. The goal is to have you learn, not blindly follow a trading room or an indicator.